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What's the real status of divorce in America?
Nearly everyone in America has heard the statistic: roughly half of marriages end in divorce. In the year 2000 alone, 957,200 divorces were granted in the United States.
The odds seem stacked against couples considering marriage. In fact, marriage rates are declining in nearly every state. But what is the real story behind divorce in America? Are the odds of a marriage failing really 50-50? Or could there be more to the numbers than meets the eye?
Marriages don't exist in a vacuum. Studies suggest that many factors contribute to the success or failure of a marriage, including geography, age, religion, race, income and education level, and family history of divorce. Study the truth behind the numbers, and you may find your own marriage has a higher chance of success.
| It sounds like the beginning of a bad joke: what does marriage have in common with major league baseball? According to a study by Denver University psychologist Howard Markman, cities with major league baseball teams have 28-percent lower average divorce rates. |
Geography
It sounds like the beginning of a bad joke: what does marriage have in common with major league baseball? According to a study by Denver University psychologist Howard Markman, cities with major league baseball teams have 28-percent lower average divorce rates. In general, urban areas have higher divorce rates than rural areas.
Another strange, but accurate, predictor of divorce rates is warm weather. More than 60 percent of the total U.S. population lives in the northern half of the country, yet less than half of all divorces occur there. Ironically, the Bible Belt states have some of the highest divorce rates of all.
The states with the most marital stability are Georgia and Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Nevada has the highest divorce rate in the nation. Below is a list of the 2002 divorce rates for all 50 states. The national average is 5.2. How does your state stack up?
| Alabama | 5.4 | Montana | 4.0 |
| Alaska | 4.6 | Nebraska | 3.6 |
| Arizona | 4.7 | Nevada | 7.1 |
| Arkansas | 6.2 | New Hampshire | 4.3 |
| California | n/a | New Jersey | 3.4 |
| Colorado | 4.7 | New Mexico | 4.4 |
| Connecticut | 3.3 | New York | 3.4 |
| Delaware | 3.5 | North Carolina | 4.5 |
| Florida | 5.1 | North Dakota | 3.0 |
| Georgia | 2.5 | Ohio | 4.0 |
| Hawaii | 3.7 | Oklahoma | n/a |
| Idaho | 5.3 | Oregon | 4.6 |
| Illinois | 2.9 | Pennsylvania | 3.1 |
| Indiana | n/a | Rhode Island | 3.2 |
| Iowa | 3.1 | South Carolina | 3.4 |
| Kansas | 3.6 | South Dakota | 3.3 |
| Kentucky | 5.2 | Tennessee | 5.1 |
| Louisiana | n/a | Texas | 3.9 |
| Maine | 4.6 | Utah | 4.1 |
| Maryland | 3.4 | Vermont | 4.2 |
| Massachusetts | 2.5 | Virginia | 4.2 |
| Michigan | 3.8 | Washington | 4.6 |
| Minnesota | 3.1 | West Virginia | 5.2 |
| Mississippi | 4.9 | Wisconsin | 3.2 |
| Missouri | 4.0 | Wyoming | 5.4 |
| Highest Divorce Rates: Top 5 Cities |
| 1. Reno, NV | 14.2 |
| 2. Las Vegas, NV | 12.8 |
| 3. Evansville, IN | 9.4 |
| 4. Cheyenne, WY | 8.9 |
| 5. Indianapolis, IN | 8.8 |
| Lowest Divorce Rates: Top 5 Cities |
| 1. Toledo, OH | 1.2 |
| 2. Boston, MA | 1.7 |
| 3. Yonkers, NY | 2.3 |
| 4. Laredo, TX | 2.3 |
| 5. Brownsville, TX | 2.6 |
*All divorce rates per 1,000. Source: Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, CDC.
Current Trends
The 1960's and 1970's saw sharp increases in divorce rates across the country. Since the 1980's, however, the national divorce rate seems to have stabilized, according to Larry L. Bumpass of the University of Wisconsin. Many state divorce rates are actually down since the 1990 census figures were compiled.
As of March 1997, 9.9 percent of Americans aged 18 or over were divorced. That's over 19 million people, 58 percent of them women. The median age of divorced people is 50-years-old.
The National Center for Health Statistics recently reported that, within 15 years, 43 percent of all first marriages end in divorce or separation. Sixty-year-old men and women enjoy the lowest likelihood of divorce of all demographic groups: only 36 percent of men and 32 percent of women that age will divorce their first spouses.
Early Marriage
Couples who tie the knot early are much more likely to get divorced. Studies show that nearly half the people who marry under age 18 will have failed marriages, and 40 percent of those who marry under age 20 will end up divorced. In contrast, only 24 percent of people who marry after age 25 will get divorced. Half of all marriages in which the bride is under age 18 will end in divorce within ten years.
Religion
According to a recent Gallup report, 10 percent of Catholics and 10 percent of Protestants are divorced, while 23 percent of Catholics and 26 percent of Protestants have been divorced at some point in their lives.
At 29 percent, Baptists have the highest divorce rate of any Christian denomination. Only non-denominational Christians have a higher divorce rate among Christian groups, with 34 percent divorced. Among Christians who describe themselves as born-again, the divorce rate is 29 percent. Only 21 percent of Lutherans have been through a divorce. The Jewish divorce rate is 30 percent, while divorce among atheists and agnostics is relatively uncommon: 21 percent.
Inter-faith and inter-denominational couples tend to have higher divorce rates than couples of the same faith and denomination. However, couples who married as members of different denominations, but later affiliated with one church had a divorce rate of only 6 percent. This is compared with a 14 percent divorce rate among couples who were the same denomination when they married, and 20 percent rate among those who maintained their separate church affiliations.
Race
Divorce rates among different ethnic groups vary sharply, with 9.8 percent of whites divorced, compared with 11.3 percent of African-Americans, and 7.6 percent of Hispanics.
According to a new Census Bureau study, more than eight out of 10 Asian-American children in the United States live with both parents, which is significantly higher than any other racial or ethnic group.
Economic and Other Factors
Half of all couples who earn less than $25,000 a year will divorce within ten years of marriage, regardless of race, religion, age, or any other factor. Divorce is more common in less affluent areas, and divorce rates spike sharply during a recession. During the brief recession in 1997, the number of divorces rose 16.9 percent nationally, according to a National Statistical Office survey. 255 couples were divorcing every day during that year. Nearly half of all welfare recipients divorce while on welfare; however, welfare programs that require recipients to work see sharp declines in the number of divorces.
Statistically, marriages in which the wife earned more income were no more likely to end in divorce, according to a recent study. In 1998, 10.5 million women earned more money than their husbands.
Doctors, police officers, and firefighters have a higher risk of divorce than other professionals, but divorce in the military is the highest of all. Research shows that 20 percent of all marriages fall apart within two years when one spouse is on active duty.
Remember the red state, blue state maps from the recent elections? Red states have a 27 percent higher divorce rate than blue states. Also, new research has shown that smokers have a 53 percent increased risk of divorce, regardless of gender, race, age, education, or income.
Early Divorce
Many factors can reduce the likelihood that your marriage will end in divorce before your 10th anniversary. An annual household income of over $50,000 will decrease your likelihood of an early divorce by 30 percent. Having a baby seven months or more after marriage will give you a 24 percent decrease in chance of early divorce, as will marrying over age 25. If your own parents are still married, your chance of divorce before your 10th anniversary decreases by 14 percent, as does having a religious affiliation of any kind. Any amount of college education decreases your chances of divorcing early by 13 percent.
Highest Risk Factor?
The highest risk factor for divorce may be surprising, since it is often seen as a way to promote stability and security in a relationship. Couples who move in together prior to marriage have a far greater chance of divorce than couples who do not. How much higher is that risk? Some studies suggest couples who co-habitat before marriage, divorce at a rate as high as 85 percent.
Divorce Reform
In light of the widespread divorce in America, many groups are fighting for tougher divorce laws. Legislation has been introduced in several states, which would make ending a marriage more difficult. Such legislation is currently being debated in Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, North Dakota, New Mexico, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia.
Happily Ever After?
Clearly, divorce in America is not as simple as the 50-50 statistic suggests. Reasons for ending a relationship are often just as complex as the relationship itself. Young couples just starting out often find statistics quite discouraging, like the one that says only 38 percent of couples in America describe themselves as "happily married."
However, those looking for love refuse to give up easily. 75 percent of divorced people remarry, half of them within three years. So ministers, wedding singers, and caterers of America, don't dismay! Love looks beyond statistics, wedding bells keep ringing, and couples keep saying, "I do."
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